Now that the reality of the FSU football season is only three days away, it's time for me to take a closer look at the next four months or so ahead of us. When I think of what this FSU team can accomplish in 2012, I get really excited. The Seminoles have a defensive front four (well, really eight or so) that stands to be one of, if not the best, unit in college football this season. The offensive line, while young, is bigger and healthier than it was a year ago. There's talent at running back and, more importantly, at wide receiver. A fifth year senior QB is taking the snaps. Finally, the schedule is favorable.
I will point out now that I am NOT in the crowd that has FSU playing in the BCS title game. An undefeated regular season is likely the only result that will give the Seminoles a spot in that game, as history and the SEC BCS record shows. Based on consecutive four loss seasons, I am not ready to put FSU at 13-0 and in the national title game. I do, however, feel that Jimbo Fisher and his staff have the right mix of talent and leadership to go along with that favorable schedule to put this team "back" on the national stage as a team to be reckoned with. IF this team isn't hit with the injury bug that plagued last year's squad, IF the offensive line indeed can hold its own and create time for Manuel and holes for the running game, IF the defense can avoid the mental lapses in some critical games, the 2012 version of the Seminoles will find themselves in the ACC title game and the Orange Bowl, at the very least. Unfortulately for some of my Seminole faithful, the reality is that only a truly magical season will end up in Miami on January 7th instead of January 1st.
Now, onto the schedule and my predictions for the year.....
Frank, you ask, what's up with the "season of twos?" Well, my answer is this: looking at the schedule, I see the schedule as a series of seven two game seasons. I know you're supposed to look at one game at a time, but hear me out; reviewing the following dyads and ultimately how they play out will determine the outcome of the season. So, here goes......
First two games: Murray State and Savannah State. These two FCS opponents are really just a tune up, a way for the Seminoles to hit someone other than each other. The only goals here for Jimbo and the team is to get out of these games unscathed by injury and get some playing time for reserves.
FSU 2-0.
Second two games: Wake Forest and Clemson. These are the first two ACC matchups, and Seminole Nation doesn't need to be reminded that these two games last year derailed FSU from the ACC title hunt. Losses by identical scores of 35-30 by Seminoles teams playing with key offensive players out due to injury, combined with defensive lapses, gave FSU a three game losing streak and being booted from the Top 25 polls. Look for FSU to have these games circled on the calendar. I feel Wake Forest will be a blowout victory for the Noles, and the Clemson game will end up in a 2-0 ACC start for FSU. The Seminoles defense will put their pride on the line in these two games, and look to reverse the trend of losing to these two pesky foes. Clemson might be the only team in the conference with a better group of receivers than FSU, but it won't be enough this year. Our defense will be wreaking havoc in that backfield, and they won't have an opportunity to get the ball thrown to them. FSU wins this game.
FSU 4-0
Third set of games: USF and NC State. FSU's first two road games of the season match them up against a USF team that beat them in Tallahassee three years ago in Christian Ponder's junior season (and a much less talented Seminoles squad), as well as a Wolfpack team the FSU handled comfortably at home last year in Tallahassee. USF is a team FSU has some payback to give, and the Bulls just don't have the depth on both sides of the ball to pull a victory off. The NC State game has me worried a bit, but I still feel that the 'Noles will, as long as injuries haven't become an issue, win this game comfortably. FSU starts ACC play 3-0.
FSU 6-0
Fourth set of games: Boston College and Miami. FSU returns to Tallahassee October 13th to face the Golden Eagles undefeated and looking to maintain momentum. The Seminoles won last year in Chestnut Hill 38-7, combining a four turnover performance by the defense with a balanced offensive attack. I don't see this ending favorably for the Eagles in another FSU romp. The following week, the 'Noles travel to South Florida to face annual nemesis Miami. In last year's contest, the 'Canes, even with an early monumental statistical lead, couldn't capitalize in the first half. On the FSU side of the ball, they needed a punt return late in the first half by Greg Reid and three Dustin Hopkins field goals to win in Tallahassee by a score of 23-19. The FSU defense allowed two late TD drives in the fourth quarter, but Hopkins' 38 yard FG at the 11:07 mark of the fourth had put the game in FSU's control. This is a rivalry game, and if Al Golden finds a way to have the Hurricanes in decent ACC position by the time this game rolls around, FSU had better pull out all the stops. This game is going to be close, but FSU will come out the victor for the third year in a row, and halfway to another state title.
FSU 8-0
Fifth set of games: Duke and Virginia Tech. Against the Blue Devils, the Seminoles will play their ninth straight game and sixth ACC contest. At this point of the season, the hype and expectations will be off the charts. FSU has never lost to the Blue Devils (in fact, they're the only ACC team that hasn't found a way to beat FSU in football), and I don't expect that trend to change. The Seminoles win this one going away, and if they find themselves with any injury issues, the Duke game is a good week to let those heal. They have a bye week the following weekend before their Thursday night ESPN game in Blacksburg against the Virginia Tech Hokies. For me, the Tech game is the most important of the regular season. FSU will have the national spotlight, it's on the road against a quality ACC opponent. The Hokies have dominated the ACC for the past seven years, including wins over FSU in the 2007 regular season and the 2010 ACC title game. Although the 'Noles will have 11 days and a Duke game to prepare for this, Virginia Tech is the flag bearer of the conference right now. The game is at night on their turf, and they will not go quietly. This is where I feel recent history bites FSU. With all that is at stake on this game, I don't have the confidence that Manuel and the offense will be able to pull off a victory. Virginia Tech wins Part One (hint) at home in a close, hard fought game. The Seminoles lose their first, and only, ACC game of the year, and have nine days to regroup before facing Maryland on the road. Oh, and this also means the national title hopes are over. There's no way a one loss FSU team gets the nod over a one loss SEC team. Just isn't happening.
FSU 9-1
Sixth set of games: Maryland and Florida. Folks, we don't fear the turtle anymore. The Terps were already outgunned in this game, and with the season-ending injury to their starting QB C.J. Brown, it only got worse. FSU scored 41 points in this game last year, and with the Gators looming a week later, Jimbo will want his team focused on an appearance in the ACC championship game. I predict another runaway victory over Maryland and moving on to the home finale against the arch enemy. As a 'Nole, last year's UF game was a fun one to watch. It was also a painful one to watch. The Seminoles offense couldn't garner 100 yards of offense, and needed the complete ineptness of the UF QB's to pull out the victory in Gainesville. That said, a win is a win against the Evil Empire in Hogtown. This year, the Gator defense is every bit as good as it was in 2011, and since the UF QB situation is still unsettled and none of the UF receivers are stepping up their game, we could very well see a repeat of last year's game in Tallahassee. As much as I hate to say it, scoring points on the UF defense is going to be a tall order. I still feel that defenses aside, FSU has the better offensive talent, and is playing this game at home. The Seminoles pull out the victory by ten points, and finish the season at...
FSU 11-1
Final set of games: ACC title game and Orange Bowl. FSU and Virginia Tech will face off again in the ACC title game in December, with FSU pulling out the victory on the neutral field and a BCS Orange Bowl berth on the line. It will be another close game, but the Seminoles will find a way to win the second matchup. In the Orange Bowl, the ACC Champ FSU will face the Louisville Cardinals. No disrespect to Louisville, but FSU crushes them by 30 on their way to a one-loss season, top five ranking, and the loss of Mark Stoops to a head coaching gig somewhere in 2013. But, hey, that's for another blog.....
Final record: FSU 13-1
There you have it, folks! My garnet and gold colored view of the 2012 FSU football season! Go Noles!
No comments:
Post a Comment